Google has unveiled “Project Suncatcher,” a futuristic plan for space-based AI datacenters. But this “moonshot” is in a race against a $3 trillion “earthbound” giant that is moving at incredible speed, with datacenters sprouting “from India to Texas.”
The $3 trillion terrestrial boom is happening now. It’s fueled by the immediate, “rising demand for AI” and is already causing “rising concern” about emissions and resource use. Google’s space plan, by contrast, is a long-term bet.
“Project Suncatcher” won’t have its first prototypes in orbit until 2027. And its research suggests it won’t be cost-“comparable” to Earth until “the middle of the 2030s.” This gives the terrestrial model a 10-year head start.
Google is betting that the $3 trillion boom is a “dead end”—a non-scalable, unsustainable model. It’s betting that its 8x-more-efficient solar-powered orbital model will eventually leapfrog the terrestrial one, “minimising impact on terrestrial resources.”
This is a classic “tortoise and the hare” scenario. The $3 trillion hare is fast but “dirty.” Google’s orbital tortoise is slow, expensive to start (with CO2-heavy launches), but promises “unlimited” clean energy. The 2030s will reveal which bet was right.