The US Treasury, under Secretary Scott Bessent, faces a “terrible” choice: prepare for a massive bill to refund tens of billions of dollars in tariffs, or hope the administration wins a tough and uncertain legal battle at the Supreme Court. This high-stakes dilemma forms the backdrop for President Trump’s new proposal to dramatically expand the very policies under fire.
Bessent himself framed the stark choice in a recent interview, admitting that a loss in court would force the refund of “about half the tariffs,” which he described as “terrible for the treasury.” This public acknowledgment of the immense financial risk highlights the precariousness of the administration’s position.
Despite this risk, the White House is pushing for a monumental escalation, asking the EU to join a plan for 100% tariffs on India and China. This move is aimed at pressuring Russia over the Ukraine war but would also vastly increase the amount of money the Treasury might have to refund if the court case is lost.
This creates a high-wire act for Bessent and the administration. They are publicly projecting confidence in a legal victory while simultaneously proposing actions that dramatically raise the financial stakes of a defeat. The Supreme Court’s decision in November will determine whether they stay on the wire or face a terrible fall.